• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1464

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 19:43:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101943
    SPC MCD 101943=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1464
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Michigan Upper Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101943Z - 102045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A large supercell has developed on the southern end of a
    line of storms with a threat for large hail and damaging winds for
    the next 1 to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell in Iron County, Michigan has shown a 1.5 to
    2.5 inch MESH core for the last hour. This storm continues to show a
    strong mid-level mesocyclone and echo tops over 50 kft. There has
    been significant sidelobe velocity contamination within the inflow
    region of this supercell but close examination of the velocity data
    through time and support from an environment with weak flow in the
    lowest 2km would suggest a low tornado threat from this supercell.
    However, large hail (some greater than 2 inch) and damaging winds
    may be possible as this supercell moves east. The airmass near this
    storm currently indicates MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg with decreasing
    instability with eastern extent. Therefore, expect this supercell to
    eventually weaken, but given its strength at present time,
    storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations could allow the storm to
    persist further into the less stable airmass than may be otherwise

    The short duration and relatively isolated threat area will preclude
    the need for a watch ahead of this activity.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!svUPThnIBgn_3Yp_Ru_awnpqIuJwfOG6pwB-rrjg6L8w7ePAoYjszv5EPfNbsos3WTmbqoZ4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45988829 46218851 46608839 46728749 46618640 46278630
    46118671 45968729 45988784 45988829=20

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