• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1463

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 19:21:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101920=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-102145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1463
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO...southern IL...western
    KY...and far southwestern IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101920Z - 102145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds may continue for the
    next few hours. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is ongoing this afternoon
    near and south of the St. Louis metro area. This convection is
    related to outflow from storms that occurred earlier today across central/eastern MO. A wind gust to 35 kt was reported within the
    past hour or so with this line at KSTL as it moved through, along
    with isolated tree limb damage and small hail. This convection is
    occurring well south of even modestly enhanced mid-level westerly
    flow across the central Plains and upper MS Valley. But, it should
    remain loosely organized along its own outflow, and it will
    encounter a very unstable airmass with MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg.
    Accordingly, occasional strong to damaging wind gusts may continue
    for the next few hours as the cluster moves slowly
    east-southeastward into southern IL, southeastern MO, and perhaps
    eventually western KY. Given the lack of stronger deep-layer shear, expectations are for this cluster to exhibit only limited
    organization. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at this
    time.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tBFYi3rK8JoaJ0O5fknrVz2RgQAYP8p_HNRwqibEF6H9sybYVRr93-zjVtmZ0W0Z6_aJweO7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38438778 38218745 37608757 36998815 36788898 37179050
    37569102 37859114 38109065 38618996 38958977 38878867
    38438778=20



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