• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1462

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 18:31:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101831
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101830=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-102100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1462
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern VA...DC...MD...DE...
    southeastern PA...and western NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101830Z - 102100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Mainly isolated tree damage may occur with storms this
    afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to increase in coverage over
    parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains in central VA. Another isolated
    storm was located in south-central PA as of 1830Z. Current
    expectations are for scattered storms to develop through the
    remainder of the afternoon along/east of the Blue Ridge along a weak
    surface trough. Mid-level flow is quite weak across VA/MD (20 kt or
    less per recent VWP estimated from KLWX), and it strengthens only
    modestly with northward extent into south-central PA. Still, with
    around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present and somewhat steepened
    low-level lapse rates, a mix of pulse storms and perhaps a small
    cluster or two may ultimately occur. Wet microbursts and/or gusty
    outflow winds capable or producing mainly isolated tree damage will
    likely be the main severe threat. Given the lack of stronger
    low/mid-level flow, the overall severe threat is expected to remain
    too marginal to justify watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sBLHaN1JFseXHR2uRnh_9i5fWAby4FO8_LJmSwjVlX-N9rax7lsLVDT14dGzUsMIYazOEh3q$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37717892 38227838 39177808 40617691 40827612 40677490
    40077464 38627604 37787696 37167774 36737829 36867889
    37227929 37717892=20



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