• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1461

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 18:12:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101812
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101812=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-101945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1461
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central and eastern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101812Z - 101945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Monitoring storm intensity/coverage across eastern Iowa
    for a potential severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...A storm has formed in Clarke County, Iowa. SPC
    mesoanalysis and forecast soundings would suggest a bit more warming
    would have been expected before widespread surface based storm
    development was imminent. However, radar characteristics suggest
    this storm could be surface based. Therefore, more widespread
    surface based storm development may be more imminent than previously
    thought. Instability across eastern Iowa is extreme with MLCAPE
    around 4000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis.=20

    Based on the DMX and EAX VWPs there appears to be some stronger
    mid-level flow across southern Iowa which may provide enough shear
    for some better storm organization.

    Therefore, given the extreme instability and at least modest shear,
    any sustained, organized convection will likely be severe. The
    primary question at this time will be storm coverage. Therefore,
    storm trends will continue to be monitored and if/when stronger,
    sustained updrafts appear imminent, a watch may become necessary.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vZmWd6rd1aeFwA7a8GmUY9bea5fnx-4kQU3cDCAYmpBexELilinkjtOXTCx2r840mdRfM5t5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 40689447 41899378 42999273 42919114 42509083 41339121
    40709169 40689447=20



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