• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1460

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 17:03:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101702=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-101830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1460
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Wisconsin and western Upper
    Peninsula of Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101702Z - 101830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...There is an isolated threat of large hail and damaging
    wind across northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of
    Michigan into the early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection has formed across northern
    Wisconsin in an area being influenced by ascent associated with the
    main upper-level trough. This convection has become more numerous in
    the past 30 minutes. Steep mid-level lapse rates were observed on
    the 12Z MPX RAOB and are contributing to MUCAPE in excess of
    2000-2500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear in this region
    is around 35 to 45 knots which has provided ample shear for storm
    organization. Therefore, expect a continued increase in storm
    coverage and intensity with the potential for some supercell
    structures. Initially, large hail may be the greater threat, but as
    inhibition weakens and storms congeal, the damaging wind threat may
    increase.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!urX3QCdm2ysEbnKZ7Sswzb_h8DOSgqVnJB37ODti5gWNoOsL5kob-p3zBnTwFvbsobVqOlTJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

    LAT...LON 46679175 46999121 47089065 47408866 47468791 47118792
    46308863 46068912 45709079 45969148 46159182 46679175=20



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