• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1459

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 16:12:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101612
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101612=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1459
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1112 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...northern WV...and
    southwestern PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101612Z - 101845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat may continue in the short
    term with a small cluster of storms moving eastward. The overall
    severe threat will probably remain too marginal for watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A short line of storms are ongoing at 1610Z across
    portions of eastern OH. This convection is being aided by a weak
    shortwave trough present over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Both
    low and mid-level winds appear relatively modest per recent VWPs
    from KPBZ, but there is some strengthening of the flow through mid
    levels. Recent radar imagery from KPBZ shows strong inbound
    velocities occurring with this line in east-central OH. A small
    corridor of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe threat
    in the short term. The longevity of this line as it moves into the
    northern WV Panhandle and southwestern PA remains unclear, as
    surface temperatures are still mostly in the 70s to around 80 with
    fairly prevalent cloud cover. Less instability is also present with
    eastward extent (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), so there may be some
    tendency for this line to weaken in the afternoon as it moves across
    the higher terrain of western/central PA and northern WV.
    Regardless, uncertainty is higher than usual in storm evolution
    across this region. For now, watch issuance appears unlikely, but
    convective trends will continue to be closely monitored.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pMHCTJuu908A14i6FBDID1hbTQiEkwacefU19q45EROEEohHWrkAwGwRWqGyM4jhCSiIa87f$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 40048213 40438151 40978031 40997949 40547910 39807948
    39287965 39258078 39448201 40048213=20



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