• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 15:45:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101545
    SPC MCD 101545=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1045 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MO into western IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101545Z - 101815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may continue to move eastward
    across parts of central/eastern Missouri and western Illinois this
    morning and early afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main
    threat, and watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered storms related to earlier overnight
    convection across NE/KS have persisted through the late morning
    across parts of western and central MO. Even though outflow has
    surged well ahead of the primary small cluster based on recent data
    from KEAX, it does appear to be maintaining its intensity based on
    observed cloud to ground lightning flashes and IR cloud tops. Even
    though the low to mid-level westerly flow over MO is not overly
    strong per recent VWPs from KEAX, it may be sufficient for continued
    modest storm organization. A linear/cluster mode should persist as
    convection develops eastward across central/eastern MO through the
    rest of the morning and continuing into the early afternoon. The
    airmass downstream of this activity is already strongly unstable,
    with 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE present. As robust diurnal heating of
    a very moist low-level airmass characterized by mid to upper 70s
    surface dewpoints occurs this afternoon, instability is expected to
    strengthen further while weak convective inhibition is removed.
    Steepening low-level lapse rates combined with the large reservoir
    of buoyancy suggest some threat for scattered damaging downdraft
    winds if the ongoing cluster can maintain its integrity for the next
    hour or two and subsequently strengthen as it moves into eastern MO
    and eventually western IL. Trends will be monitored for signs of
    increasing convective intensity and organization, with watch
    issuance possible.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p0G4mpO9JoY7MePk6pk09hmzsu_8cAZPtSgPrIqefG0T7pAzNdANg8zJI0Llk_pwm2k5nC7A$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38919342 39269327 39609330 40169234 40129076 39919010
    39378910 38318921 38329048 38609252 38919342=20

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