• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1457

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 05:40:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100540
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100539=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-100745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1457
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southwest/South-Central
    NE...Northwest/North-Central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 100539Z - 100745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms along the western KS/NE border and across north-central KS may pose a risk for isolated large hail and/or
    damaging wind gusts. Additional storm development is possible, but
    the overall severe coverage is expected to remain low enough to
    preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a series of strong
    thunderstorms extending from the far western KS/NE border
    southeastward to just south of the central KS/NE border of Norton
    and Graham Counties in north-central KS. The leading storm in Norton
    and Graham Counties appears to have developed as a result of
    warm-air advection atop the southward surging outflow attendant to
    the pair of storms back farther west along the western KS/NE border.
    Recent VAD data from DDC sampled the ongoing low-level jet well, and
    the expectation is that that ongoing storms will persist, supported
    by the warm and moist inflow attendant to the low-level jet.=20

    Additionally, the two storms back west along the western KS/NE
    border have recently shown a bit more eastward motion. This
    increased eastern motion may be a result of the convectively induced
    vorticity maximum becoming more progressive under the influence of
    the strong shortwave trough moving across the northern High Plains.
    As a result, there is some potential for the downstream development
    over Norton and Graham Counties to accelerate eastward as well.
    Low-level stability should mitigate the overall potential of
    damaging gusts reaching the surface, but a few stronger gusts may
    still be realized. Additional storm development could also occur
    along the surging outflow. Steep mid-level lapse rates could result
    in updrafts strong enough to produce hail.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q0u4f4_8PnmFx6v3_pZJVy1BDBVCSWm2DKSuAMu5AYnPIxxTIAynAMMQscwrHY2q2uIXMtRV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39550189 40130220 40280119 40239902 39609752 38759859
    39340106 39550189=20



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