• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1456

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 02:52:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100252=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-100415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1456
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 PM CDT Mon Aug 09 2021

    Areas affected...eastern north Dakota northwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

    Valid 100252Z - 100415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Additional storm development across WW418 will likely
    continue tonight as the main band of convection continues eastward.
    Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main threats though a
    tornado cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front across eastern North Dakota a
    band of deep convection a couple of supercells continue to pose a
    risk for severe weather. Recent radar trends suggest additional
    storm development taking place along the cold front will continue as
    deep ascent from an upper trough over the northern Plains continues
    eastward. As nocturnal stabilization progresses, cold pool
    development may favor a more linear storm mode supportive of
    damaging wind gusts as storms approach the Minnesota border. Latest
    HRRR guidance supports this showing additional storm development
    south and east of the main band merging into a more linear
    configuration.=20=20

    Ahead of the main band of storms, a likely tornadic supercell in the
    vicinity of Grand Forks has been able to remain isolated as it
    tracks along a warm frontal zone. Enhanced helicity (200-300 m2/s2
    ESRH) owing to backed surface flow along the front may continue to
    support a tornado threat over the next hour or so before nocturnal
    inhibition increases substantially hindering low-level mesocyclone maintenance.=20

    As storms approach the eastern edge of WW418 expiring at 0400z, a
    general decrease in severe potential is expected. While some severe
    risk may exist to the east of the current watch, a downstream watch
    appears unlikely given an increasingly stable boundary layer.
    Nevertheless, local watch extensions across northeastern North
    Dakota and northwestern Minnesota are possible.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uy8ncdq98dF9hJJg9R-zJc8SqXQ4BSKlnNr0BU2-rdHYniBCTPsk8xW3N2hRUBFjCLxcxDV4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47299870 48419915 49009899 49129785 49099649 48999592
    48799558 48369535 47859532 47519556 47319600 47179689
    47069759 47299870=20



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