• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1454

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 9 23:34:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092334
    SPC MCD 092334=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1454
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Mon Aug 09 2021

    Areas affected...East-central North Dakota and far northwestern

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

    Valid 092334Z - 100100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418

    SUMMARY...Supercells across WW418 will continue to pose a risk for
    all hazards. Additional development is expected over the next few
    hours with an increasing risk for hail/damaging winds later this

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of the compact upper low across the northern
    Plains, a cluster of supercells has become established across
    central North Dakota. Recent storm reports of golf ball and baseball
    sized hail indicate these storms continue to pose a risk for large
    to very large hail as they track to the north and east. Ongoing near
    a warm front with dewpoints in the mid 60s F, SPC mesoanalysis shows
    2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across much of North Dakota. Regional VWPs
    also show robust shear profiles with 50-60 kts of effective shear.
    With strong instability and vertical shear in place, the environment
    will remain highly favorable for supercells capable of large to very
    large hail and damaging wind gusts this evening.=20

    As the cluster of storms continues to track to the north and east,
    they will approach a southwest to northeast oriented warm front in
    the vicinity of Grand Forks, ND. Along and north of this boundary,
    low-level flow is strongly backed, favoring enlarged low-level
    hodographs. KMVX VAD data shows 200-300 ESRH in place, suggesting
    some potential for tornadoes if storms can remain discrete. However,
    additional development and continued upscale growth into one or more clusters/short line segments may shift the threat towards damaging
    winds later this evening. Until then, a tornado or two will remain
    possible near the front.

    ..Lyons.. 08/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rYt8qDyOqTGpqomhvz6sediSRtOJ_15Bo8CGQUfyPL8hd6k_r9uek_4paUZGiYQwtDACMZ8t$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 47479976 48969973 49109936 49119723 49099667 48719653
    48119646 47929652 47059710 46319921 46419950 46969960

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