• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1451

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 9 17:51:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091750=20
    KYZ000-092015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1451
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091750Z - 092015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat should continue with
    storms moving eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms is moving
    eastward across central KY this afternoon. Low-level flow in the
    boundary layer quickly veers to westerly and modestly strengthens to
    around 30 kt at mid levels per recent VWPs from KLVX. About
    1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steepening low-level lapse rates with
    continued daytime heating should allow for storms to persist into
    eastern KY this afternoon. The lack of stronger mid-level flow will
    likely limit overall storm organization and intensity. But,
    strong/gusty outflow winds capable of producing mainly isolated tree
    damage will be possible. Some signs of modestly enhanced outflow
    winds have already been observed in recent velocity data from KLVX.
    Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal, and watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sovpltgirR2XploNHeSkQWP8aB9ljZZslYbuN0sdwaE5O56EWLv-Bs-mfizIBSv6Chnb3kOd$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 37138600 37228546 37498484 37938432 38238415 38438378
    38368324 38058277 37368279 36858325 36688444 36708525
    36848593 37138600=20



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