• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1448

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 9 00:15:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090014=20
    MOZ000-090145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1448
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

    Valid 090014Z - 090145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A small evolving cluster of storms may continue to develop
    through 9-11 PM CDT, and pose at least some risk for potentially
    damaging wind gusts in a corridor near/north of West Plains through
    Poplar Bluff. It is not certain that a new severe weather watch
    will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
    possibility.

    DISCUSSION...There has been a gradual consolidation of renewed
    convective development, including some recent intensification of
    storm, near or just north of the southern flank of conglomerate
    convective outflow which trails a modest convective system spreading
    across middle Mississippi Valley. The surface boundary extends from
    near Springfield east-southeastward to the north of West Plains and
    Poplar Bluff, with warm advection across the boundary, and inflow of
    seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg,
    supporting convective development.=20=20

    Although westerly mid-level flow along the boundary appears a
    relatively modest 20-30 kt, it is possible that vertical shear may
    be sufficient to support further organization of the evolving
    cluster, particularly with some strengthening of south-southwesterly
    flow just above the boundary layer after dark. It is possible that
    this could gradually be accompanied by increasing potential for
    strong surface gusts as the more vigorous convection propagates
    along the boundary through mid to late evening. However, the extent
    of this potential remains unclear, and it might remain isolated
    and/or marginal enough that a new severe weather watch will not be
    need.

    ..Kerr.. 08/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tZ-_NuiFl9RH0volryCyzjIzhqP63-4wUv3ZUmD_oi_fawtpHr7wZxgtyFSS8Vqf_Nd6quJD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37399228 37369104 36989001 36649034 36869126 36929245
    37399228=20



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