• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1447

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 22:48:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082248
    SPC MCD 082247=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1447
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central and southern
    Ilinois...southeastern Missouri and portions of adjacent western

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

    Valid 082247Z - 090015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415

    SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms may continue to pose at
    least some risk for localized strong to severe wind gusts as it
    progresses across much of the remainder of central and southern
    Illinois, and adjacent portions of southeastern Missouri and western
    Kentucky, through 7-9 PM CDT. A new severe weather watch is not
    anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms is maintaining at least modest
    intensity, as it generally advects east-northeastward within 20-30
    kt deep-layer southwesterly mean ambient flow, ahead of a mid-level
    short wave trough progressing into the middle Mississippi Valley.=20
    There remains a corridor of seasonably moist and modestly heated
    boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg
    ahead of activity. However, vertical shear is weak enough to allow
    convective outflow to begin advancing ahead of the more intense
    leading line of convection, particularly areas from near Perryville,
    MO northward. Substantive further intensification of storms does
    not appear likely, but activity might still remain capable of
    generating locally strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts into the
    00-02Z time frame, before diminishing.

    ..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s6y7FKPaqYF2O4jsOsKGvvngA3RGtBQFmyadq1AtTVSHpakcTO0DKjFUaim9kh5js3JjBjfA$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36799037 37628972 38478950 39148954 40158945 40278898
    40408846 40658788 39858785 38628806 37388857 36588935
    36369003 36799037=20

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