• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1446

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 22:04:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082204
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082204=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-082330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Southwestern Minnesota and northern
    Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082204Z - 082330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Beneath an upper level trough, a few storms may pose an
    isolated severe risk this evening. Storm coverage is expected to
    remain low, but isolated severe hail or a brief tornado cannot be
    ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon water vapor imagery showed a well-defined
    vort max centered over southern Minnesota and the upper Midwest.
    Daytime heating and ascent near the center of the vort max has
    resulted in isolated convective development along the backside of
    the low near the Iowa Minnesota border. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
    1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE is present along with weak vertical shear
    near 30 kts. While not overly supportive of severe weather, a few
    stronger multicells or weak supercell structures may evolve as
    convection moves southeastward into north-central Iowa. Moderate
    buoyancy and cool temperatures beneath the upper low may support
    severe hail with the strongest updrafts. Enhanced vertical vorticity
    beneath the vort max and buoyancy concentrated near the ground may
    also support the potential for a brief non-supercell tornado given
    enhanced updraft/vorticity stretching. Convective trends are being
    monitored, but high uncertainty on storm coverage/severity suggests
    a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rJfADGgcdXf3Zhwva5k7BzUTnP9DvuBfZwdUfG7u_VabWoCC1Md3lxSuvft7TKv6mRzxhNKw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 44179574 44069490 43829433 43649407 43509387 43369370
    43209366 42759349 42519371 42219419 42249498 42559542
    42779570 43649620 43989620 44169585 44179574=20



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