Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021
Areas affected...central and eastern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...
Valid 082053Z - 082230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe hail, damaging winds, and a
brief tornado continues across watch 416.
DISCUSSION...Temperatures across eastern and central Wisconsin have
warmed into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This
is yielding MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Effective shear has weakened
across the area as mid-level winds have weakened to around 30 knots
out of the south on area VWPs. This may be partially responsible for
the seemingly unorganized nature of the convection thus far.
However, some clustering has occurred in Adams and Marquette
counties with occasional weak rotation. Relatively weak winds in the
lowest 2km should limit the tornado threat, but backed surface winds
downstream of this activity could support a brief tornado.
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