• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1444

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 20:00:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082000=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-082200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1444
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern MO into
    western/central IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

    Valid 082000Z - 082200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Loosely organized storms capable of producing mainly
    scattered damaging winds should continue moving east-northeastward
    this afternoon. Downstream watch issuance into central Illinois is
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage across
    central/eastern MO this afternoon, but have struggled to intensify
    so far. This may be due to modest deep-layer shear (25-30 kt) and
    poor mid-level lapse rates limiting updraft strength and
    organization. Regardless, low-level lapse rates ahead of the ongoing
    loosely organized cluster continue to steepen with diurnal heating.
    Strong to damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe threat in
    the short term as this activity moves across eastern MO and the St.
    Louis metro over the next hour or two. Isolated, marginally severe
    hail also remains a possibility with any of the stronger embedded
    cores.

    Farther north into central IL, isolated storms have developed on
    what appears to be an outflow boundary associated with an MCV now
    moving into western WI. This convection is occurring in environment characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg), but
    weak effective bulk shear (25 kt or less). Although an isolated
    strong wind gust may occur with these storms in the short term, a
    slightly better chance for organized severe storms may occur later
    this afternoon as the cluster in eastern MO moves into western and
    perhaps parts of central IL. At this point, the need for a
    downstream watch into central IL to account for possible damaging
    winds remains unclear, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Gleason.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!veB8MwPa2EA0A3hGqhGOasYagYd15xW1_g0nSEm2VwmxS7qgEX0eQeNbQM6Wg0YMhct7hbCV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36819258 37269205 38069145 38829164 39629220 40439096
    40958959 40998863 40668836 39748838 38508872 36589027
    36579236 36819258=20



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