• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1443

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 17:58:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081758
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081757=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-081930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1443
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Wisconsin.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081757Z - 081930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe weather potential is expected to increase
    through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...An MCV can be seen on visible satellite and
    intermittently in surface wind observations in far southeast
    Minnesota at 18Z. This feature is will continue to lift northeast
    through the day. Extending east from this MCV is a warm front from
    near the MN/IA/WI border to just south of Green Bay. This warm front
    is expected to lift north through the afternoon with the MCV. SPC
    mesoanalysis suggests areas across southern Wisconsin have
    destabilized (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) with surface based inhibition
    mostly eroded. Consequently, visible satellite now shows surface
    based cumulus development east of the MCV from western Wisconsin
    into eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Therefore, anticipate storm
    development within the next 1 to 2 hours across portions of
    southwest Wisconsin. Area VWPs have sampled around 50 knots of flow
    around 6 km which should provide ample shear for some storm
    organization including some embedded supercell structures. The
    primary hazards are expected to be damaging winds and severe hail,
    but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in close proximity to the
    warm front where low-level vorticity should be enhanced. A watch is
    possible within the next 1 to 2 hours once increasing storm
    coverage/intensity appears imminent.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!spezuD0l4_M_V3XGO6rP_bdLhFEqxopH8gkwtyYmxsVot9TRygJ5ytB2eapQ2XMsKIRWLGXo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43998759 43268771 43288955 43179067 43129118 43649122
    44009112 44998998 44758726 43998759=20



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