• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1442

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 16:40:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081640
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081640=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-081915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1442
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MO and western/southern
    IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081640Z - 081915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and severe hail
    should increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Widespread cloudiness is present across much of western
    MO this morning, which has limited heating across this area so far.
    Less cloud cover over central/eastern MO into IL has allowed surface temperatures to generally warm into the 80s as of 1630Z. A very
    moist low-level airmass depicted on the 12Z SGF sounding and
    evidenced by low to mid 70s surface dewpoints from various
    observations sites is present across this region. Continued diurnal
    heating will likely allow 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop by
    peak afternoon heating. A shortwave trough evident in water vapor
    satellite imagery will move eastward from the central Plains towards
    the mid MS Valley through the rest of the day. Large-scale ascent
    preceding this feature will likely encourage the development of
    scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon across much of central/eastern MO and eventually into western IL.

    Initial storms will probably focus along a differential heating zone
    and remnant outflow boundary present across south-central MO as
    small-scale perturbations embedded within the shortwave trough
    overspread this area. Mid-level flow is not expected to be overly
    strong, but marginal deep layer shear around 25-30 kt should be
    enough to support some storm organization. Convection will probably
    tend to form into multiple clusters with time. As low-level lapse
    rates continue to steepen, damaging downdraft wind gusts should
    become the primary threat. But, isolated severe hail may also occur
    with initially more discrete development. Trends will be monitored
    for signs of increasing convective coverage and intensity, with
    watch issuance possible early this afternoon.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oH4A0FTsnC_zOCoar-JprnX-rY26nmPqIhbp_lrJnKTX0hZISCG6blTjYCCfuSqTg4njpBOe$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 36619340 37619318 39129271 39869181 40409039 40298930
    39398900 38528928 37778965 36599101 36549261 36619340=20



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