• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1440

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 04:19:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080419
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080419=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1440
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1119 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Kansas...northwestern Missouri....southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

    Valid 080419Z - 080545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A small cluster of vigorous thunderstorm development could
    still pose some risk for strong wind gusts near the western
    Missouri/Iowa border vicinity through Midnight-2 AM CDT, but this
    risk may remain marginal and isolated enough that another severe
    weather watch will not be necessary.

    DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar trends, inhibition associated
    with elevated mixed-layer air, even to the north of the Interstate
    70 corridor, has been sufficient to suppress maintenance of vigorous thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear may be too marginal as
    well, while outflow from the earlier severe storm cluster across the
    Omaha, NE area has also surged southeastward.=20=20

    Intersecting outflow boundaries northwest through north of Falls
    City, NE remain a focus for a relatively vigorous area of
    thunderstorm development. This could still intensify some, with at=20
    least some potential to organize and produce strong surface gusts
    near the western Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, as a remnant MCV
    approaches the Omaha area through 05-07Z. These trends will
    continue to be monitored, but it is appearing less likely that a new
    severe weather watch will be needed.

    ..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sidT_gBjSqjgPRtddomAetvb6coL2fIq1iAB-MHdRmrrPf0I8zZxfpIf1-PI3d1YsOn3X262$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 41279517 41649480 41479375 40769377 40089436 39719518
    40329565 41279517=20



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