• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1438

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 01:21:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080121
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080120=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1438
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0820 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle...northwestern Oklahoma...southwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...

    Valid 080120Z - 080215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
    could be locally extended in time for an hour or two. However, the
    risk for severe weather appears to be waning, and another watch is
    not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Nocturnal southerly low-level intensification should
    commence along/east of surface troughing across the Texas South
    Plains and Panhandle into southwest Kansas during the next few
    hours. This could contribute to maintenance of thunderstorm
    activity into late evening, but this probably will largely become
    focused to the cool side of a convective outflow enhanced front
    which is forecast to stall near/north of Medicine Lodge, KS into
    areas near/southwest of Amarillo. To the warm side of this surface
    front, increasing inhibition associated with boundary-layer cooling
    beneath warm elevated mixed-layer, near/south of the southern
    periphery of mid-level troughing turning eastward across the central
    Great Plains, likely will result in further waning of convective
    development.

    ..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oA4Fj3W8KDMvJHmsCoXHkZp-_NzqG4XvEjgdZNG7RDfMZs6UxDHqiN5znbw0kriiuSudhQGj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35630233 36480254 36820134 37529991 37739953 38009897
    37269785 35690013 33630329 35630233=20



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