• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1437

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 8 00:12:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080012=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-080145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1437
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Dakotas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080012Z - 080145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms near an area of low pressure across
    the Dakotas may pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated hail
    this evening. A non-supercell tornado may also be possible in
    vicinity of the surface low. Storm coverage is expected to remain
    low suggesting a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Evening water vapor imagery showed a well defined
    shortwave trough moving out of the Rockies and into the central
    Plains. Ahead of this wave, an area of low pressure at the surface
    was observed near the north Dakota south Dakota Border. Lift from a
    cold front extending south from the low has resulted in isolated
    storm development along an arcing line from south-central North
    Dakota to near Aberdeen, South Dakota. Despite prominent smoke and
    haze, daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s F have resulted
    in moderate instability (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Winds aloft
    however are weak, with the Aberdeen VAD indicating effective shear
    remains below 30 kts. Severe potential appears modest, but a few
    stronger multicell storms may become organized early this evening.
    Steep mid-level lapse rates and large buoyancy will support the
    potential for severe hail and damaging outflow winds with the
    strongest storms. Enhanced stretching from 0-3km CAPE in excess of
    100 J/kg east of the low center and locally greater vertical
    vorticity beneath the vortmax may also support a non-supercell
    tornado this evening. Uncertainty on storm organization remains
    high, suggesting that a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q5QDno7ChMR1aoZ-8espEskLJlfdpV-dApmvxvSartngG-6vVaytjUKTeqS_rNkO-0VIQeVO$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46839944 46909911 46889850 46729801 46469758 45999710
    45489718 45139766 45069844 45289872 45599876 45989900
    46189955 46639977 46839944=20



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