• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1436

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 23:12:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072312
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072311=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-080115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1436
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0611 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Nebraska...western and
    central Kansas and adjacent portions of the Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...

    Valid 072311Z - 080115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An eastward advancing corridor of increasingly widespread thunderstorm development is expected through 7-9 PM CDT, with strong
    to locally severe wind gusts becoming an increasing hazard. Trends
    are being monitored for the possibility of one or two additional
    severe weather watches.

    DISCUSSION...Stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer
    mixing is focused near the pre-frontal surface trough axis across
    the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through the Garden City/Dodge
    City areas, into north central Kansas northeast of Hayes and
    Russell. However, the bulk of ongoing thunderstorm development has
    been occurring ahead of the cold front through areas west of the
    surface trough axis, where higher surface dew points and cooling
    aloft ahead an approaching short wave trough area contributing to
    greater CAPE (in excess of 1500 J/kg). Beneath 30-40 kt
    southwesterly mid-level flow, deep-layer shear is also strong,
    contributing to supercell structures north of Garden City.

    However, deepening convective development is evident near the
    immediate vicinity of the surface trough, and models suggest that a
    combination of consolidating convectively generated cold pools and
    the cold front will overtake the surface trough during the next few
    hours. Aided by forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated
    with the eastward progressing short wave trough, it appears that destabilization along the surface trough may support increasingly
    widespread thunderstorm development during the next few hours. By
    01-02Z, there is some consensus among the various model output that
    this probably will extend from southeast of Dodge City through the
    Concordia and Hastings/Grand Island vicinities.

    Coinciding with nocturnal southerly low-level jet strengthening
    along this corridor (including 30-40+ kt at 850 mb), strong surface
    gusts approaching and occasionally exceeding severe limits will
    likely become the most prominent severe hazard.

    ..Kerr.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ojT8V4rI50Rs7ddkZRzUVbBtiM5LKQF4gSQaQa0JZ-rdTUpXMeCHZz-vKU6nEFvBXPrvv4Oe$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 37570071 39259933 40489874 40859624 39469658 36909913
    36270034 37570071=20



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