• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1435

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 22:03:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072203
    SPC MCD 072202=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1435
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...southern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

    Valid 072202Z - 072300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413

    SUMMARY...A localized corridor favorable for a couple tornadoes may
    evolve across portions of southern Wisconsin and WW413.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar data showed several
    severe storms ongoing near an MCV and modified effective front
    across southern Wisconsin. Along this boundary, locally backed
    surface winds are supporting enlarged low-level hodographs favorable
    for supercells. SPC mesoanalysis and regional VWPs indicated 300-400
    m2/s2 of ESRH is present along the boundary while to the south, a
    moderately unstable airmass 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE resides.
    Temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s F will
    continue to support robust updraft development along the southern
    side of the MCV this afternoon. Given the favorable shear profiles,
    a corridor of greater severe threat will continue to evolve across
    southern portions of WW413 ahead of a tornadic supercell in Grant
    County Wisconsin. Here, a couple tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
    will be possible over the next one to two hours.

    ..Lyons.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uCcx2kTnkV1gSQ38p3mwMbHyzZpzSPDOShPwBLUGnoE1ZW9k7GG7gLWYCkzNzzgGWWHebVlp$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42778867 42688849 42528852 42508891 42588942 42719002
    42879039 43129066 43269020 43098958 42978905 42888886

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