Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021
Areas affected...southern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...
Valid 072202Z - 072300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
SUMMARY...A localized corridor favorable for a couple tornadoes may
evolve across portions of southern Wisconsin and WW413.
DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar data showed several
severe storms ongoing near an MCV and modified effective front
across southern Wisconsin. Along this boundary, locally backed
surface winds are supporting enlarged low-level hodographs favorable
for supercells. SPC mesoanalysis and regional VWPs indicated 300-400
m2/s2 of ESRH is present along the boundary while to the south, a
moderately unstable airmass 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE resides.
Temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s F will
continue to support robust updraft development along the southern
side of the MCV this afternoon. Given the favorable shear profiles,
a corridor of greater severe threat will continue to evolve across
southern portions of WW413 ahead of a tornadic supercell in Grant
County Wisconsin. Here, a couple tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
will be possible over the next one to two hours.
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