• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1434

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 20:46:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072046=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-072245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1434
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern MN...northeastern IA...and
    southern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072046Z - 072245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards remain possible this afternoon, but
    overall storm coverage is uncertain. Watch issuance is still
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms occurring through much of the day across
    southern MN into southwestern WI have largely remained elevated
    while posing an isolated hail/wind threat. Recent visible and
    satellite imagery suggests that some attempt at surface-based storm
    development is underway across south-central MN along a convectively
    reinforced warm front. If this activity can strengthen over the next
    couple of hours, then it would pose a threat for all severe hazards,
    as MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear
    present across the warm sector will be favorable for organized
    updrafts. A small cluster is also present across southwestern WI,
    and this activity should pose mainly an isolated damaging wind
    threat in the short term as it moves eastward. The main uncertainty
    is overall coverage of surface-based storms, as large-scale forcing
    behind an MCV moving into WI remains unclear. Any tornado potential
    will likely remain focused along the warm front where the greatest
    low-level shear is present owing to backed surface winds. At this
    point, watch issuance remains possible, and will largely be
    dependent on the development of additional surface-based storms
    along the front.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p6eFWUDbZhth6Ri5wGly63y8AP0wOY_gH6-o1RF4GKX_u5aHGO1EoQSPGQVejlj67kl0pfSH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 44239353 43759025 43338872 42578894 42539078 42579277
    42989364 43789392 44239353=20



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