• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1433

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 20:35:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072035
    SPC MCD 072034=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico through portions of the OK/TX
    Panhandles and into western Kansas and far southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 072034Z - 072200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1
    to 2 hours with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch
    will likely be needed to cover the threat.

    DISCUSSION...A cold front can be seen clearly on visible satellite
    imagery, in some places from the presence of surface based cu, but
    primarily due the large region of smoke present behind the front.
    The front now extends from far southwest Nebraska across far
    northwest Kansas to near Raton Mesa. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that
    CINH has mostly eroded across the region. In addition, in the last
    30 minutes more post frontal convection has been observed across
    eastern Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border indicating the
    deeper ascent is likely spreading eastward and should interact with
    the front shortly. Also, high-based convection in far northeast New
    Mexico is starting to show more vertical development as temperatures
    have risen to near 100 degrees which matches the convective
    temperature from forecast soundings. This all points toward more
    widespread thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2 hours. The
    stronger storms are expected in western Kansas where instability is
    greatest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) and where the strongest deep-layer
    shear is present (40-45 kts). In this region, supercells are
    expected to congeal into one or more clusters which may pose a
    damaging wind threat through the evening hours. A severe
    thunderstorm watch is likely by 21Z.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!td3bBxU672sdyi0EJyHHG7TR3ktp-xjhd67jEAS_4vWE0qLumhCKkRbhkQ43zZjG7jeZrzBi$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34820208 35510296 36870298 38560234 39410115 39699964
    39549931 38579947 36140083 34820208=20

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