• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1432

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 19:30:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071930
    SPC MCD 071929=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1432
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071929Z - 072100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...One or two supercells capable of isolated severe hail and
    a damaging wind gust or two are expected to move across eastern
    Colorado this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A storm has developed on the cool side of a cold front
    moving south across eastern Colorado. As temperatures continue to
    warm near this front, expect one or two additional storms to
    develop. Deep layer (0-6km) shear is around 40 knots which will
    support rotating updrafts with the initial storm in Elbert County
    already showing supercell characteristics. Expect this storm and any
    additional development (possibly beginning in Lincoln County) to
    continue east through the afternoon toward an increasingly unstable
    airmass. Initially weak instability but moderate shear may promote
    supercells with isolated large hail and perhaps a severe wind gust.
    However, as these storms encounter greater instability, stronger
    updrafts and upscale growth is anticipated. Eventually a severe
    thunderstorm watch may need to be issued for the increasing damaging
    wind threat across portions of western Kansas.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oWX9pMSrTnnIc1o_I_UvI-AxmztdO0ADrTqXVyWgFkaxINcLGTQI8cq54CZQZ5Cg958ho4ht$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39330428 39810301 39620207 39450177 38780192 38390209
    38350310 38590406 39330428=20

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