Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 071929Z - 072100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...One or two supercells capable of isolated severe hail and
a damaging wind gust or two are expected to move across eastern
Colorado this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A storm has developed on the cool side of a cold front
moving south across eastern Colorado. As temperatures continue to
warm near this front, expect one or two additional storms to
develop. Deep layer (0-6km) shear is around 40 knots which will
support rotating updrafts with the initial storm in Elbert County
already showing supercell characteristics. Expect this storm and any
additional development (possibly beginning in Lincoln County) to
continue east through the afternoon toward an increasingly unstable
airmass. Initially weak instability but moderate shear may promote
supercells with isolated large hail and perhaps a severe wind gust.
However, as these storms encounter greater instability, stronger
updrafts and upscale growth is anticipated. Eventually a severe
thunderstorm watch may need to be issued for the increasing damaging
wind threat across portions of western Kansas.
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