• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 17:33:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071733
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071732=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-071900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071732Z - 071900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and potentially a tornado are
    possible over the next 2 to 3 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A line of convection along a surface front has slowly
    moved east across northern North Carolina with occasional lightning.
    Cloud cover ahead of this line has limited overall instability, but
    surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s have provided sufficient
    low-level moisture for MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Overall this
    line of storms has been mostly unorganized, likely due to the
    relatively weak wind profile sampled by the KAKQ VWP. However,
    despite this weak shear, a more organized segment of the line has
    developed across Northampton county. with a comma-head signature
    developing. Within this a broad, yet somewhat strong, area of
    rotation has been persistent for the past hour. The aforementioned
    weak shear should be a limiting factor for a greater tornado threat,
    but internal processes within this organized section of the line
    could provide an environment favorable for a brief tornado or two as
    this section of the line moves into southeast Virginia. Due to the
    isolated threat area, no watch is anticipated.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sSETIwKr7NhbiGlCX49ZcD9cZXmuJzRlhHGKy_o3uOGhZsqP9DWKIg_OC_W34XUdFman3DNc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 36497772 37187712 37557635 37497589 36917555 36397550
    35987564 35547614 35307682 35327744 35427786 35697820
    36497772=20



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