• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1429

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 7 07:11:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070711
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070710=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-070915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1429
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast/East-Central SD...Far Southwest
    MN...Extreme Northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 070710Z - 070915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible across
    northeast/east-central SD, far southwest MN, and extreme northwest
    IA during the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a well-defined mesoscale
    convective vortex about 20 miles west of HON. This MCV is associated
    with the organized convective line that moved through central SD
    earlier this evening. Forward-propagating character to the storms
    moving across Spink and Clark Counties suggests cold pool from the
    earlier convective line continues to promote elevated thunderstorm
    development as it moves northeastward. Overall updraft strength
    within this line of storms has stayed relatively constant over the
    past hour, but the instability weakens with northern extent and a
    gradual weakening is eventually expected.

    Additionally, warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms have
    increase in coverage over the region during the past hour or so,
    supported by a low-level jet stretching from western KS through
    eastern NE into southeast SD. These storms are likely rooted within
    the 850-700 mb layer. Mid-level lapse rates and vertical shear are
    strong enough to support a few more robust updrafts capable of a
    large hail. Intersection of this arc of warm-air advection storms
    with the ongoing convective line discussed above may also lead to
    brief updraft intensification and a few instance of large hail.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qnHuYKb9RuoW2vI_iVjqUavZN_0Gdtx-GZz2cFfK0Eiga-PWPJg9eBwDouMDzQKFhMlzTl_L$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45159895 45749761 45069561 43539508 43219617 44289717
    44799831 45159895=20



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