Mesoscale Discussion 1425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021
Areas affected...Northern Illinois...northern Indiana...southwest Michigan...and southeast Wisconsin.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 062023Z - 062200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are expected through the evening
with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm activity has occurred through the
morning and early afternoon with very little organization. Strongest
storms have developed across southern Michigan, but these storms are
quickly moving toward a more stable airmass and therefore, are not
expected to be that strong. Greater instability exists farther west
from southern Wisconsin to northern Illinois with MLCAPE of 2000
J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Some more rigorous updraft development
and more frequent lightning has recently been observed in eastern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Additional storms are possible in
the next few hours, but weak forcing should keep storm coverage
isolated. In addition, shear is quite weak with around 15 to 20
knots per KLOT VWP. Therefore, expect updrafts to be transient with
storm organization less likely. A few stronger updrafts may be
capable of isolated severe hail or a downburst capable of wind
damage, but a greater severe weather threat appears unlikely.
Therefore, no watch is anticipated.
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