• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1425

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 6 20:24:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062023=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-062200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1425
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0323 PM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Illinois...northern Indiana...southwest Michigan...and southeast Wisconsin.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 062023Z - 062200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are expected through the evening
    with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm activity has occurred through the
    morning and early afternoon with very little organization. Strongest
    storms have developed across southern Michigan, but these storms are
    quickly moving toward a more stable airmass and therefore, are not
    expected to be that strong. Greater instability exists farther west
    from southern Wisconsin to northern Illinois with MLCAPE of 2000
    J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Some more rigorous updraft development
    and more frequent lightning has recently been observed in eastern
    Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Additional storms are possible in
    the next few hours, but weak forcing should keep storm coverage
    isolated. In addition, shear is quite weak with around 15 to 20
    knots per KLOT VWP. Therefore, expect updrafts to be transient with
    storm organization less likely. A few stronger updrafts may be
    capable of isolated severe hail or a downburst capable of wind
    damage, but a greater severe weather threat appears unlikely.
    Therefore, no watch is anticipated.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s_O5-BxbpMciFLIf-S6H5C8EYlENR18KHVrjVvGqF28k3m9634GO_onfnG9K6ohdxaam3I7q$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40458991 41428932 42168956 43148945 43718888 44078776
    44108704 43808619 43308539 42648504 42008515 41428565
    40758684 40478767 40128815 39958909 39998946 40458991=20



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