• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1424

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 6 18:39:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061839
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061839=20
    WYZ000-062045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1424
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 PM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021

    Areas affected...central and eastern WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061839Z - 062045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely develop as convection moves from
    a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer, located over south-central WY,
    into greater moisture located farther east/northeast into parts of
    central and eastern WY. Severe gusts will probably accompany the
    more intense downdrafts/outflow once storms mature later this
    afternoon into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
    trough over ID moving into WY this afternoon. Surface analysis
    places a low near Casper. To the east and north of the low, surface
    dewpoints range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with temperatures
    warming into the lower 80s over eastern WY. Southwest of the
    surface low, large temperature-dewpoint spreads are indicative of a
    well-mixed boundary layer where the winds have veered to the
    southwest.

    As large-scale ascent strengthens over central WY this afternoon
    while additional heating occurs, the erosion of MLCINH will lead to
    isolated thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon. Strong
    southwesterly mid-level flow will aid in some storm organization,
    mainly in the form of organized cells/clusters as they move into
    greater moisture located over the eastern third of WY. Severe gusts
    and possibly large hail will accompany the stronger storms.=20
    Convective trends will be monitored for a possible severe
    thunderstorm watch to include parts of central, eastern, and
    northeastern WY and possibly the Black Hills.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uVyC8JRDA-pIoiPWhSl3Khi7oOEviLyxD2EiiO9_zxXvppjxlZTPTmBDwwirfpJoVjxMMlfH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 41760544 42400687 42710843 43080864 43640841 43700632
    43220516 42070474 41760544=20



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