• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 6 02:35:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060234=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1423
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0934 PM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota northwest Iowa and far
    southwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 060234Z - 060400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms with a history of severe hail
    may continue to pose a risk for hail/damaging winds over the next
    few hours. Storms should gradually weaken with time, diminishing the
    severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, the cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota has
    produced several reports of severe hail and strong wind gusts.
    Contrary to earlier day model guidance, radar and satellite trends
    suggest weakening of the storm cluster is evolving slower than
    anticipated. Some severe threat in the form of hail and damaging
    wind gusts will likely linger across portions of northwestern Iowa
    and far southeastern South Dakota as storms continue to move south
    and east over the next few hours. Despite boundary-layer cooling and
    increasing inhibition, SPC mesoanalysis indicates a moderate
    unstable environment (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE) remains in place.
    Effective shear is somewhat limited with regional VWPs indicating
    only 20-25 kts. Limited vertical shear but favorable thermodynamics
    suggest a few organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two
    may persist for another few hours before being overcome by
    increasing nocturnal inhibition. Until then, severe hail and
    occasional damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the
    strongest storms.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qLnTT99H_NuBmUAOglW3LkIi9rdx_Kb6oLRpXOnZtRHNKEPVzvHSr4ZdYaxhzXrWhGAqH4ix$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43719727 43929670 43899575 43479488 42629463 42339490
    42309573 42369625 42679668 43069727 43719727=20



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