• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1422

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 5 23:06:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052306
    SPC MCD 052305=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1422
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021

    Areas affected...North-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052305Z - 060000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A low-end risk for damaging wind gusts or hail is possible
    early this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across north-central Nebraska has
    shown occasional organization supportive of damaging wind gusts and
    or severe hail. Located at the nose of a plume of mid-level lapse
    rates near 8-9 C/km, these storms are ongoing in 1000-2000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kts will
    favor organized multicell and weak supercell structures. If
    convection is able to sustain itself, a brief risk for damaging wind
    gusts and severe hail may evolve. To the south and east, the near
    storm environment rapidly becomes hostile for deep convection, with
    warm mid-level temperatures and large scale subsidence. Storms will
    likely weaken as they track south and east over the next 1 to 2
    hours but, a brief window of severe risk may develop. Given the
    limited spatial and temporal risk, a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qYA6ldK6538Tf22ozKk8S7iBjTJwWE35uovOq_-Zhp9LSb5QAr55MrMvQe7CL02bvkN2RH6M$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43020054 42989926 42549865 42029837 41649858 41429901
    41389956 41620009 42380054 42820068 43020054=20

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