• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1421

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 5 20:45:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052045
    SPC MCD 052045=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1421
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021

    Areas affected...southern Idaho and extreme northeast Nevada and
    northwest Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052045Z - 052245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based convection may pose a risk for isolated
    downburst winds this afternoon into the early evening hours. It
    appears coverage of any severe events will probably remain too
    sparse to warrant a WW.

    DISCUSSION...This afternoon high-based convection is in the process
    of developing from northeast NV through northern UT and southern ID.
    Most of this activity has yet to produce lightning. Strong diabatic
    heating is occurring in the wake of the morning clouds and showers,
    boosting temperatures into the 90s F, but with surface dewpoints
    likely to mix into the 40s and upper 30s F over much of this region.
    Deeply mixed boundary layers with steep lapse rates will
    characterize the atmosphere, but instability will remain marginal
    with 300-600 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
    continue developing within the zone of upper diffluence and ascent
    downstream from a shortwave trough situated over northern CA.
    High-based updrafts rooted near 600 mb atop deep inverted-V boundary
    layers will promote a threat for isolated downburst winds as
    activity spreads northward into the early evening.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 08/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u-jZby7zoBHx8nkM8ovbycb33USjBe9BqW9ulTSjyuvvam970twQT3B5i0TmXSgulbEwqMkt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44191554 44101389 43521271 42741238 41971294 41011479
    41931531 42881645 43491655 43941627 44191554=20

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