• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1420

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 5 20:41:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052040=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-052145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1420
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021

    Areas affected...east-central SD...southwest MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052040Z - 052145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop through the
    early evening near the SD/MN border. This activity will likely
    weaken after sunset. Marginal hail/localized gusty winds are the
    potential threats with these storms.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing convection
    near the SD/MN border in the vicinity of a surface pressure
    trough/wind shift with a surface front accelerating
    south-southeastward towards the area. Surface conditions shows
    temperatures in the mid-upper 80s deg F with dewpoints in the mid
    60s. Forecast soundings show steep 0-3 km lapse rates amidst
    generally modest westerly flow at or below 20 kt. Storm
    organization will be quite limited due to weak effective shear
    (below 20 kt) and favor multicellular activity. A
    marginal/localized risk for marginally severe hail or strong gusts
    could accompany the stronger storms through early evening.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sBxdwHZZ2dmCvAow-lhy7wqtwCVzzBvA2oyLuYTPLz0YzLuHxmZMgFefFz3GdOS1Q1U2Zv97$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44879691 45219548 44729494 44319554 44209685 44879691=20



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