• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1419

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 4 22:25:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042225=20
    MTZ000-050030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1419
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Wed Aug 04 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northwestern into north central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042225Z - 050030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development, including a few supercell structures, probably will continue near and north through east of
    Cut Bank into 6-8 PM MDT time frame, posing a risk for severe hail
    and locally strong surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development appears underway to
    the northwest and north of Cut Bank. This is occurring within the
    crest of large-scale mid-level ridging, where forcing for ascent,
    associated with weak low-level upslope flow and an approaching
    mid-level short wave trough migrating through the broader-scale
    anticyclonic flow, may support the maintenance of convection into
    the 00-02Z time frame.

    A seasonably warm and deeply-mixed boundary layer (with 40+ F
    surface temp/dew point spreads) across this region appears
    characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg.=20
    However, within the cloud-bearing layer, mean flow may be in excess
    of 30 kt, with unidirectional but strong westerly shear.

    This environment may remain supportive of the formation of
    additional splitting supercell structures with the potential to
    produce severe hail and at least locally strong downbursts. It is
    possible that consolidating surface cold pools could begin to
    support some upscale convective growth, with a tendency to propagate south-southeastward accompanied by a bit more substantive risk for
    strong surface gusts by early evening.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 08/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pFVEQeO7DOVVteTUDyDKo6JpHzoSCucw8QEiexLYVwLgIDdEEh1q2eSlFQCTU9U6I4BkOwXv$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...

    LAT...LON 49261184 48921021 48180998 47931089 48391200 48671305
    49261184=20



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