• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1417

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 2 19:52:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021952
    SPC MCD 021951=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1417
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 02 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into southeast Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021951Z - 022215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with the strongest storms
    this afternoon into early evening. The overall severe threat is
    expected to be quite sparse and short-lived, and a WW issuance is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies have allowed for ample diurnal
    heating, with surface temperatures/dewpoints exceeding 80/50 F per
    latest METAR observations, contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    (when modifying 17Z RAP forecast soundings). Latest visible
    satellite imagery shows CU field growth over the higher terrain of
    the southern Cascades, and MRMS mosaic radar data shows convective
    initiation in progress. Further heating into the 85-90F range should
    support more robust convective initiation over the next couple of

    By 21Z, a well-mixed boundary layer will be in place, fostering
    8.5-10 C/km 0-3km lapse rates. Mainly high-based, pulse-cellular
    storms are expected this afternoon into early evening. The presence
    of 0.75 inch precipitable water values suggests that enough water
    loading in convective downdrafts and subsequent evaporative cooling
    in the deep sub-cloud layer will support some potential for gusty
    winds. However, dewpoints are expected to mix out some by afternoon
    peak heating, constricting skinny CAPE profiles to the 600-300 mb
    layer/above the freezing level. As such, the stronger (potentially
    severe) wind gusts are expected to be quite isolated and brief, and
    a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oXSjK-hWfhh5QTjmAgvzQknZMmEsI8OLWTs4buUyqE0BrwJ7xK5PMjaigYGYzE1BZ88yUHm6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43002145 43582225 44322233 44452228 44902177 45132102
    45201994 45211933 45021918 44161855 43501808 43071778
    42571798 42171849 42151902 42222000 42512064 42672101

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