• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1415

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 18:24:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011824
    SPC MCD 011824=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1415
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0124 PM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Nevada into western Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011824Z - 012000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may occur in association with the
    stronger wet downbursts. A WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
    intensity this afternoon as convective temperatures are locally
    being exceeded. Latest METAR observations show surface temperatures
    climbing into the 80s across parts of the Great Basin into the Lower
    Colorado River Valley as mostly clear skies (evident via visible
    satellite) are allowing the boundary layer to destabilize. 18Z
    mesoanalysis shows 7-8.5 C/km 0-3km lapse rates and 500-1000 J/kg
    MLCAPE already in place, and with continued surface heating, up to 9
    C/km low-level lapse rates and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may become
    achievable on a widespread basis.=20

    Deep-layer vertical shear is lacking, suggesting that storm mode
    should be short-lived single/multi-cellular. However, given
    1.00-1.25 inch precipitable water values and aforementioned steep
    low-level lapse rates in place, a couple of the more robust storms
    (albeit brief) may support heavy enough storm cores to induce brief
    but damaging (potentially severe) wind gusts through the afternoon. Nonetheless, given the sparse and short-lived nature of the severe
    threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v--JqHC-_DHrxFR2GzdOCnryYLDkz3N9gqUyzy9lhbsfwL7ZvL34jX8j4R3GmHE9qKhppi8k$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36591538 39271589 41231545 41451453 41021348 39561295
    38621289 37561321 37061378 36751422 36371484 36591538=20

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