• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1414

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 17:10:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011710
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011709=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

    Areas affected...Central MS...Central AL...Central GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011709Z - 011915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
    afternoon. A few storms may become strong enough to produce damaging
    wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals an outflow boundary
    extending southern AR eastward across central MS, AL, and GA. This
    outflow boundary precedes the more baroclinic cold front to its
    north. Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly deep cumulus
    across much of the region ahead of the outflow boundary, with the
    deepest cumulus currently in the vicinity of the small thunderstorm
    cluster moving across east-central MS. Air mass downstream south of
    the outflow boundary is characterized by temperatures in the upper
    80s/low 90s, dewpoints in the mid 70s, and MLCAPE generally around
    2000-2500 J/kg.=20

    Expectation is for scattered thunderstorm development across the
    region this afternoon. This area will be displaced south of the
    stronger flow aloft, but ample moisture coupled with strong buoyancy
    will promote strong updrafts capable of producing wet microbursts.
    Overall threat is expected to remain low enough to preclude watch
    issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tPJTJAN71JQnK2BI0QzfA9B5abENjCtH3SoKmFhIfybvY1Gi4x0IHwm2HtHmlSPsoIM7bt38$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32259041 33339013 33628904 33458749 33378551 33488439
    33528376 33028307 31918320 31358698 31518988 32259041=20



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