• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1413

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 16:27:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011627
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011627=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-011830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1127 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northern Pennsylvania into central and
    eastern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011627Z - 011830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms/linear
    segments. A brief instance or two of large hail also cannot be ruled
    out. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts predominantly linear
    convection becoming gradually more widespread immediately ahead of a
    cold front approaching the Hudson Valley. Current visible satellite
    shows clearing ahead of the ongoing storms, with some CU development
    underway, indicative of a destabilizing boundary layer. Cool
    temperatures aloft are promoting modest (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level
    lapse rates atop a warming boundary layer (where up to 7 C/km
    low-level lapse rates are developing per 16Z mesoanalysis).
    Thunderstorms that can intensify amid these lapse rates may produce
    damaging gusts and small hail (with one or two larger hailstones
    possible).

    However, temperatures/dewpoints well below 80F/60F should result in
    relatively short and skinny CAPE profiles this afternoon despite the aforementioned lapse rates, with MLCAPE likely remaining below 500
    J/kg. A near-unidirectional vertical wind profile will also promote
    weak to modest deep-layer shear. As such, severe wind/hail may be on
    the more isolated/brief side. Nonetheless, conditions will continue
    to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance should a more
    widespread severe threat become apparent.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r6gInbzYo1nM1x7yhb8C7LUb1CNG-jt9T6ew799u3jsvXHNuDPV2t9-9VZMchEbAHEbTO2aK$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41568036 42167790 43097608 43267485 43147391 42627362
    42147375 41827423 41627462 41397515 41187586 41057649
    41017705 41167888 41568036=20



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