• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1412

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 15:52:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011552
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011551=20
    NCZ000-011745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1412
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1051 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 011551Z - 011745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
    afternoon across central and eastern NC. Primary threat with these
    storms will be damaging wind gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado
    or two may also occur. Given these threats a watch will likely be
    needed across portions of central and eastern NC.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central NC
    (about 20-25 miles southwest of RDU). A warm front extends
    northeastward from this low (roughly along the 80 deg F isotherm),
    while a cold front extends back west-southwestward. Surface wind and
    pressure observations also suggest that a modest pre-frontal trough
    extends southwest from the low, back into central SC. The area of NC
    ahead of the surface low and pre-frontal trough is characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Based on
    recent mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast sounding, any
    remaining convective inhibition is minimal, with moderate buoyancy
    in place.=20

    Cumulus field in the immediate vicinity of the surface has been
    deepening over the past hour, and given the air mass destabilization
    and mesoscale ascent attendant to the surface low, convective
    initiation will likely occur soon. Farther east across the remainder
    of eastern NC, skies are currently clear, but thunderstorms are
    still expected this afternoon as storms that develop over central NC
    move into the region and/or in-situ development occurs within the
    destabilized warm sector. Primary severe threat is damaging wind
    gusts. However, tornadoes are still possible, particularly if
    surface winds retain more of a southerly component into the
    afternoon. A tornado or two could also occur near the warm front (as
    discussed in MCD #1411). Isolated hail is also possible. Given these
    threats a watch will likely be needed across portions of central and
    eastern NC.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p03ALFIxuoeowtHm32R-v0I0X0zakUYafSECgZHj3NBN7PARR4Rnw2SjfU8A6t8h2u8vAS9e$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 35527914 35827860 36097768 36157690 36177663 35957627
    35597641 35227702 34877788 34707862 34767945 35087955
    35247941 35527914=20



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