• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1411

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 14:54:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011454
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011454=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-011630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0954 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

    Areas affected...Far Northeastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011454Z - 011630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and even a tornado are
    possible across far northeastern NC for the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central NC,
    with a warm front extending northeastward to near the far eastern
    NC/VA. This warm front is demarcated well by the 80 deg F isotherm.
    The thunderstorms ongoing along the eastern NC/VA border are
    occurring near this boundary, which should augment both mesoscale
    lift and surface vorticity. Recent updraft intensification as well
    as increased updraft rotation suggests this augmentation is
    occurring now. As a result, a localized threat for damaging wind
    gusts and even a brief tornado exists within this confined area of
    far northeast NC. The threat will likely last for the next hour or
    two, but the overall threat coverage is expected to remain too
    isolated for watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p4Bc2OKGDeXoVrRKiqpVXVZKt6L3k2dH4P_cF0g70ztqqtpXNhsz0Ii_XSXrtPNV9V_4i8_Q$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 36587684 36497608 36317579 35827590 35917643 36027715
    36177760 36447751 36587684=20



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