• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1410

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 10:30:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011029=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-011200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0529 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

    Areas affected...portions of south-central VA and north-central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011029Z - 011200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible with
    stronger thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing this morning in the vicinity
    of a surface trough along the NC/VA Piedmont. Instability remains
    modest across the region given poor midlevel lapse rates and time of
    day. Furthermore, boundary-layer inhibition is likely resulting in
    elevated convection. Nevertheless, effective-shear magnitudes around
    30-40 kt have resulted in some semi-organized storm structures.
    Vertically veering wind profiles and elongated hodographs suggests
    some potential for briefly organized cells, but a lack of stronger instability/lapse rates will limit overall severe potential over the
    next few hours, with possibly some small hail and/or gusty winds
    accompany the strongest cells.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v2IrdLCxA2oXBQs7N8fi0eOYbO5WApaYzt5WKKi4eXjdY0YhWCWRBC3cCJdf9jMJtVfzldQA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 36198018 36967947 37297909 37397875 37457792 37207765
    36637786 35977836 35757866 35657943 35687996 35798031
    35938047 36198018=20



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