Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021
Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 010315Z - 010515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Gusty winds are expected with convection across western
and middle Tennessee over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Northwest flow appears to be deepening/strengthening a
bit as heights fall within the base of Great Lakes/OH Valley upper
trough. Over the last few hours, an elongated band of broken
convection, about 30 miles wide, has developed from northeast
AR-western and middle TN. This activity is propagating southeast at
roughly 30-35kt within a reservoir of ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow, and the modest cold
pool that is noted with this convection, it appears these storms may
persist for several hours, possibly generating gusty winds at times.
However, a severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated, but will
continue to monitor this region.
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