• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1408

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 1 03:16:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010315=20
    TNZ000-010515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1408
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

    Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 010315Z - 010515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds are expected with convection across western
    and middle Tennessee over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Northwest flow appears to be deepening/strengthening a
    bit as heights fall within the base of Great Lakes/OH Valley upper
    trough. Over the last few hours, an elongated band of broken
    convection, about 30 miles wide, has developed from northeast
    AR-western and middle TN. This activity is propagating southeast at
    roughly 30-35kt within a reservoir of ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow, and the modest cold
    pool that is noted with this convection, it appears these storms may
    persist for several hours, possibly generating gusty winds at times.
    However, a severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated, but will
    continue to monitor this region.

    ..Darrow/Goss.. 08/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rEmfw3KeOaTui4aKpZn0Sm2OGLaKZTFcomdO5y0fMuJbKq-LyRcfTKkTngHuWMpOQvDHCxQc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36028946 36208791 36098579 35638551 35448709 35458910
    36028946=20



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