• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1407

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 31 22:09:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312209
    SPC MCD 312209=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1407
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0509 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

    Areas affected...South to southeast Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 312209Z - 010015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms developing along a cold
    front may gradually grow upscale and pose a damaging wind threat
    this evening. Trends will be monitored, and a watch may be needed if
    robust upscale growth occurs.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and regional radar mosaics
    show strong to severe thunderstorms developing along a cold front
    that is gradually sagging southward into south-central MO. The
    thermodynamic environment ahead of these storms is supportive for
    continued growth with nearly 3500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in recent
    mesoanalysis estimates. This warm sector is bound to the east by the
    residual cool outflow from prior convection over the MO/TN/KY/IL
    border where an MLCIN maxima is noted. With only a few more hours of insolation, destabilization of the remnant cold pool over the mid MS
    river valley is uncertain and may confine the severe threat. Storm
    motions to the east/southeast along the front and outflow boundary
    will likely favor loose clustering and gradual upscale growth this
    evening. Stronger flow on the eastern periphery of the warm sector
    is supporting 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, which will aid in
    some storm organization. While severe hail is possible with
    initially discrete cells, damaging winds appear more probable
    heading into the mid/late evening hours. Trends will continue to be
    monitored, and a watch is possible later this evening if robust
    upscale growth occurs over south/southeast MO and into the mid-MS
    river valley region.

    ..Moore/Goss.. 07/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!smlesb6dNasANT5KJGtcGvLLXSv8GTA0_XnJ5F3goo8jxxxUsNamhEat7vhpfYfYQz843ZTq$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38049099 37749025 37328973 36668959 36218972 36069008
    36209070 36439178 36599280 36819385 37079440 37569463
    38249457 38359409 38049099=20

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