• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1406

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 31 19:41:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311941
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311940=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1406
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0240 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

    Areas affected...South-Central KS...North-Central/Northwest
    OK...Eastern OK Panhandle...Northeast TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311940Z - 312145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage expected this afternoon.
    A predominantly pulse storm mode is anticipated, but a few damaging
    wind gusts are still possible.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown a deepening trend
    with the cumulus field across south-central KS and north-central.
    This deepening is occurring in the vicinity of a remnant outflow
    boundary preceding the stronger cold front now moving into northern
    KS. Air mass across the region is very warm and moist, with recent
    surface temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints ranging
    from the low 60s over the northwest OK to the low 70s around ICT.
    Warm mid-level temperatures are in place but the very warm and moist
    conditions will still result in moderate buoyancy. Most of the
    stronger flow aloft is displaced north of the region, so a
    predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Relatively
    high cloud bases coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and ample
    low-level moisture will result in an environment favorable for
    damaging downbursts with any more robust updrafts. Coverage of these
    strong, more persistent updrafts is expected to be limited, keeping
    the overall severe threat isolated and precluding the need for a
    watch.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vPv-WxSY0MhDo7wzQLzKe131zQqrgKvjZsthpytCtczW1HXLanEXOKsNqoIC47fRp7j51_Kc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 37380060 37679947 37829806 37759679 37449632 37009626
    36559660 36459776 36319886 36000028 36120089 36610110
    37380060=20



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