Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021
Areas affected...South-Central KS...North-Central/Northwest
OK...Eastern OK Panhandle...Northeast TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 311940Z - 312145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage expected this afternoon.
A predominantly pulse storm mode is anticipated, but a few damaging
wind gusts are still possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown a deepening trend
with the cumulus field across south-central KS and north-central.
This deepening is occurring in the vicinity of a remnant outflow
boundary preceding the stronger cold front now moving into northern
KS. Air mass across the region is very warm and moist, with recent
surface temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints ranging
from the low 60s over the northwest OK to the low 70s around ICT.
Warm mid-level temperatures are in place but the very warm and moist
conditions will still result in moderate buoyancy. Most of the
stronger flow aloft is displaced north of the region, so a
predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Relatively
high cloud bases coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and ample
low-level moisture will result in an environment favorable for
damaging downbursts with any more robust updrafts. Coverage of these
strong, more persistent updrafts is expected to be limited, keeping
the overall severe threat isolated and precluding the need for a
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