• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 31 18:06:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311806=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-312030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Wisconsin into
    extreme southeast Minnesota and far northeast Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311806Z - 312030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of damaging gusts and large hail may
    occur with the stronger, longer-lasting storms. However, the overall
    brevity and sparse coverage of the severe threat suggests that a WW
    issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete multicellular clusters have been
    gradually intensifying across portions of Wisconsin over the past
    couple of hours, with more isolated convective development underway
    to the WI/MN border (per latest MRMS mosaic radar data). These
    storms are developing along/immediately ahead of a southward
    propagating surface cold front. With surface temperatures warming
    into the mid 70s F ahead of the front (shown by the latest METAR
    observations), modest (i.e. 6-7 C/km) low-level lapse rates are
    developing beneath -11 to -13C 500 mb temperatures, resulting in
    500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 17Z mesoanalysis). 40+ kts of 500 mb
    northwesterly flow atop relatively weak westerly surface winds is
    contributing to modest (i.e. 25 kts) effective bulk shear values.=20

    The current thermodynamic/kinematic environment supports continued intensification of multicellular clusters through the afternoon
    hours, with a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally
    severe hail possible with the stronger, longer-lived updrafts.
    However, given the skinny CAPE profiles amid mediocre deep-layer
    shear, any severe threat that materialized is expected to be brief
    and isolated. As such, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uI3ay4QOrkBGEjEt_o1GspjgKh6VKSxjnMAdNBtEDtSuAWqw6jTl66-gkXGEpf5FQy2YYBK0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 44069289 45299112 45399009 45148914 44778825 44488791
    43968766 43468765 43168770 42958786 42898803 42818888
    42748989 42639094 42619209 42779259 43529304 44069289=20



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