• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1404

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 31 17:41:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311741
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311740=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-311945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1404
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

    Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311740Z - 311945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this
    afternoon across the coastal Carolinas. A few damaging downbursts
    are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery reveals a deepening
    cumulus field across much of the region, where temperatures have now
    climbed into the 90s amid mid 70s dewpoints. These warm and moist
    conditions are contributing to strong instability, despite poor
    mid-level lapse rates. In addition to this destabilization, modest
    low-level confluence will continue across the region east of the
    Piedmont. Convergence along the sea-breeze boundary is possible as
    well. These mechanisms should promote additional storm development
    this afternoon, with some initially robust updrafts possible. The
    lack of stronger vertical shear should lead to a predominantly pulse
    storm mode comprised of outflow-dominant multicells. Strong updrafts
    within the very moist air mass combined with steep low-level lapse
    rates will contribute to the potential for strong water-loaded
    downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. Lack of a more organized
    storm mode and anticipated low severe thunderstorm coverage are
    expected to preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pCDOQ36mt-4z6tQO9rJVrkuJWvWVIxYT4X7lEa6XKPdOHmHCRIM0OwZ_P5RzzbbHZVzJs2qK$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32858143 33738114 34567887 35147790 35457698 35487654
    34927629 33217917 32458055 32858143=20



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