• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 31 16:01:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311601
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311600=20
    KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MO..Far Northeast AR...Extreme Far
    Western KY...Extreme Northwest TN

    Concerning...Outlook upgrade=20

    Valid 311600Z - 311800Z

    SUMMARY...Potential severe threat associated with the ongoing
    convective line merits an upgrade to Slight Risk in the upcoming
    outlook across southeast MO. Trends are also being monitored for
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery shows a somewhat
    steady-state convective line pushing southeastward across southeast
    MO at about 35 kt. Surface analysis places this convective line to north/northeast of a warm front extending from central MO
    southeastward into northwest TN. Based on current observations (in
    particular the LSX VAD) and modified RAP sounding, updraft bases
    within this convective line are likely elevated above the low-level
    stable layer. That being said, continued warming and moistening
    downstream should result in further reduction of the mixed-layer
    convective inhibition. As this occurs, some strengthening of the
    ongoing line is possible, although the overall convective evolution
    remains uncertain. One negative working against strengthening is the
    potential for some convective inhibition to remain, largely as a
    result of the warm mid-level temperatures. Conversely, the strong
    mid-level flow sampled by the LSX VAD as the system moved through
    suggests it may be organized enough to overcome the convective
    inhibition and re-intensify amid diurnal heating.=20

    Despite the uncertainty, the threat this convective line could pose
    merits upgrading a portion of southeast MO to Slight Risk in the
    upcoming 1630Z. Additionally, trends are being monitored closely for
    potential watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!stlKmfzDk_W7wHIXblVpiGlLXFae4vEgWNYo6Vfp69dXP7rN9P1p32cOda92AhPnp2LzE36N$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37369217 37869156 37909003 37168882 36198876 36159038
    36499244 37369217=20



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