Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021
Areas affected...northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...
Valid 310554Z - 310700Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
SUMMARY...Overall severe potential appear limited across WW 405,
though locally gusty winds remain possible.
DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are continuing to propagate
south/southeast over northwest MO. Overall convection has been
largely unproductive in producing severe gusts over the past couple
of hours. This is likely due to increasing boundary-layer inhibition
combined with a rather modest low-level jet. Convection is not
expected to increase in intensity with southward extent overnight,
but sporadic/locally gusty winds are possible with the more intense
cells within the loosely organized line/cluster. Watch extensions
and/or new watch issuance is not expected at this time and WW 405 is
set to expire at 07z.
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