• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1398

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 31 01:17:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310117
    SPC MCD 310116=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0816 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast NE...Southwest IA...Northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 310116Z - 310215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across parts of the
    Mid-Missouri Valley.

    DISCUSSION...Remnants of early-day MCS that formed over SD have
    progressed southeast and new convection is intensifying along the
    southwestern flank of this activity across southwestern IA. A bit
    farther west, latest satellite imagery depicts a strengthening
    supercell just northeast of LNK, per expanding anvil and overshoot.
    00z sounding from OAX exhibited 40kt surface-6km bulk shear with
    substantial turning in the lowest 6km. Over the next few hours LLJ
    should strengthen across southeast NE into southwest IA. This could
    aid upscale growth along the cool side of the boundary. This
    activity should propagate south-southeast at only 10-15kt and a new
    watch is being considered.

    ..Darrow/Goss.. 07/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!shFReL22TH018RaNlsRcQtbzjrsvxmDDqbxMJKuQP8KdcwUlCZd0AoP2H8Axc8a8Fp1j0n7s$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41279711 41549493 40699440 40269519 40179664 40609729

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